A, C, or F

A difficult lead quiz. Continue reading

This fascinating hand came up in the sectional pairs game in Guilford on Saturday. This was your hand:

10 6    A Q 10 8 7 6 4 2 2        8 6 4
This was the wild and wooly bidding:

RHO You LHO Partner
1 4 4NT 5
6 P 6 P
P P

Here are two clues:

  1. When you ask LHO about the 6 bid, the reply is “I don’t know. Maybe it shows one ace; maybe it shows a diamond suit.”
  2. You have an extremely reliable partner (me) You can count on him to hold three hearts.

What would you lead?


These grades are based on results as the cards lay on this specific hand, not scientific study or expert analysis.

    • If you led a black card, you get an F. The opponents had four singletons! RHO can pitch his losing heart on LHO’s AK, or he can pitch LHO’s losing heart on his own AQ if he takes the finesse after drawing trump. Thirteen tricks are not difficult to find.

      I suppose that that partner might have had the A, but even so, why not lead the A before trying that gambit? I can see no reason whatever to lead a spade to cut down on ruffs. You, after all, are the one with the void.

 

    • If you led the A, you get a C. The opponents make the bid with no overtrick. No other result is conceivable as the cards sit.

 

    • If you led any heart beside the Ace or Queen, you also get a C. Your partner is reliable, but he is not a mind-reader. As it happens, RHO does have a six-card diamond suit, and LHO has a singleton. Your partner and the dummy have nine clubs between them and only seven diamonds. It would be asking a lot to expect partner to find the magic diamond return after he wins the first trick with the K.

 

  • The winner as the cards lie is the Q. It relies on partner to figure out that he must overtake, but the startling nature of the lead might serve to rouse him from his customary revery. Once he makes that move, he should be capable of leading back a diamond rather than a club.

Of course, if partner does not have the K, underleading the Ace would be a terrible play. So, it is worthwhile to analyze the probabilities. You can see eight hearts under your thumb, and partner has claimed three. The opponents therefore have two between them. The chances of partner having the King is therefore 60%. Do not bother to take into account the fact that two of the missing cards are honors. I am very familiar with your partner’s style, and I assure you the he would bid 5 with any three hearts.

Do you need to take into account whether one of the opponents has a void? Well, it seems obvious that declarer would ruff any heart lead unless there was absolutely no other potential way to make the contract except to play you for the A. Therefore, if one of the opponents has a void in hearts (48% chance), a heart lead seems unlikely to do much harm, and it is hard to imagine that any lead helps much.

If we assume that partner is astute, the chance of the Q producing two tricks is 31.2%. The chance of it forfeiting the heart trick is 20.8%. If partner has the A, leading the A is probably the best choice. However, given the bidding, I would assess that probability as negligibly small. If partner does not have that card, no other lead has a reasonable chance for success.

I flatter myself to think that I would have set the romantic lady on the table and rubbed my hands in glee when my doppelgänger partner overtook and returned a diamond for down one.

Incidentally, twelve pairs played in 6. They all made the contract, two with an overtrick. One pair bid and made 7. I bet that there was a heated exchange between the defenders after that result. I do not know what the bidding was at any of these tables. The player holding your hand may not have known that his partner held three hearts.

The Big Deal v. the Enlightenment

Which comes first, democracy or enlightenment? Continue reading

I know very little about the details of the struggle to establish something resembling democracy in the Middle East. I also am uncertain as to whether the chicken came before the egg. I am pretty certain of one thing, however, and that is that enlightenment is a prerequisite for democracy.

The Enlightenment began in Europe in the sixteenth century or, arguably, as early as the end of the fourteenth century. It was a reaction against what I like to call The Big Deal, the agreement between the papacy and the nobility to control everything. This arrangement began in the late years of the eighth century when the papacy was under siege on all sides by the Lombards, the last of the Germanic troops to invade the Italian peninsula. In Pope Stephen II (or III if you count the guy who was pope for three days in 752) crossed the Alps to meet with Pepin, the nomadic ruler of the Franks. The details of this meeting are sketchy, at best. The pope probably used some forged documents known as the Donation of Constantine to convince Pepin that he, the pope, was the rightful ruler of all of western Europe. The two agreed to share power. In 800 Pepin’s son Charlemagne was crowned emperor by Pope Leo III, and, in return for papal recognition of the ascendancy of his family, he effected his own “donation” of a swath of central Italy to the papacy and swore to protect it from any and all invasions. For 1,000 years this agreement formed the basis for government in central and western Europe.

The details of this arrangement varied considerably over the next millennium, but the essential elements remained constant. The pope made binding moral judgments; the emperor and all the nobility enforced them. Emperor Frederick II — not the pope — made heresy, which is essentially anything that questions a papal decree, a capital crime throughout the empire. Untold thousands of heretics were executed. The popes called for crusades over a dozen times, and the kings and emperors were expected to spring into action. In return the popes made it clear that it was always sinful to question the authority of the princes. One hand washed the other.

David's Coronation of Napoleon

David considered The Coronation of Napoleon so important that he painted it twice.

This relationship held firm until the time of the Thirty Years War. Thereafter it was still dominant in Catholic countries until Napoleon crushed it by crowning himself emperor. He even forced Pope Pius VII to watch him do it. The contract was officially abrogated in 1870 when the fledgling Italian republic officially eliminated the pope’s status as a ruler of a portion of Italy and let him run things only in the world’s tiniest country, Vatican City.

I would be willing to bet that the Vatican never becomes a democracy, or, at the very least, it will be one of the last places on earth that allows popular rule. The Big Deal is still in effect there, but it is between the pope as spiritual ruler of Catholicism and the pope as civil ruler of his postage-stamp-sized kingdom.

Most of the rest of the world did not suffer through the pain of replacing the Big Deal with a different model. In the United States people who set up the government were English citizens who were intimately familiar with the perils of an established church. They specifically prohibited any such idea in the constitution. South America, on the other hand was settled by Europeans from countries that still supported the Big Deal. Their colonies have had a much more difficult time implementing and sustaining popular rule.

That brings us to the Middle East, the place in which the Enlightenment is just now in its infancy. Israel has a state religion. Nearly all of the Arab countries also have one. Some of them call themselves “Islamic republics,” but to my way of thinking, the nomenclature is as ludicrous as the “people’s republics” of the countries behind the Iron Curtain. It is difficult to think of a single example in which establishment of popular rule was not preceded by a bloody period of Enlightenment. It just makes sense that as long as the opinions of religious leaders are officially considered divinely inspired, the will of the people will take a back seat. Those who have been in power are unlikely to relinquish it willingly.

So, it seems inevitable that there will be continued clashes in the Middle East between religions, between the religious leaders and the privileged military and civilian authorities, and between the underprivileged and everyone else. The task ahead for a nation like ours that would simply like to speed up the process and minimize the bloodshed there will be difficult. Just think of Egypt, in which the secularists, the Islamists, and the military/bureaucracy complex are vying for power. Whom should we support? Anyone? Does our support cause as much long-term damage as short-term gain? In Egypt today the U.S. is vilified both for supporting the military and for supporting Morsi’s government.

Not statue, stature.

Not statue, stature.

To me the scary people are those who think that these questions have clear answers. It was much easier for Lafayette. He supported our revolt against England in large part because of his respect for enlightened people like George Washington, Ben Franklin, and John Adams. If there are any people of George Washington’s stature in the Middle East today I have not heard of them.