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Hand of the Week03/12/14

This is apparently a rather mundane hand, but South faces a very important decision.

Board #3
South dealer
East-West vulnerable
  
 North
A Q
2
K 10 9 8 5
A 9 6 4 2
 
West
J 10 8 4 3
K Q 9 8
A Q 6
5
 East
9 7 5
10 6 4
J 3
K J 10 8 3
 South
K 6 2
A J 7 5 3
7 4 2
Q 7
 
    
SouthWestNorthEast
PP1P
1P2P
?

South was hoping that North would rebid 1NT. This would have allowed South to use New Minor Forcing or some other checkback bid to tell North that he had ten points and a five-card heart suit. However, the most natural rebid with North's hand is the five-card club suit.

At matchpoints there is a strong incentive to play hands with nominal minor-suit fits in notrump, and so there would be quite a bit of pressure on South to try 2NT. How well would that work out?

Well, West would surely start with a spade. The favorable locations of the A and K mean that South can expect to take three spades, one heart, one diamond, and two clubs. To make the contract, one more trick must be manufactured. The eight-card diamond suit is a likely source. There are basically two choices. 1) Lead up to the Q and then lead diamonds back, or 2) Just lead out the diamonds from the board (North) and see what happens.

If option 1 is selected, East will surely take the K and return a spade. Another club allows declarer to return to the hand and lead a diamond, which West will probably duck. It is now clear that this strategy is doomed. When the first diamond trick is conceded , a third round of spades eliminates the last spade stopper. When West gets in with the third diamond trick, two spade tricks can be cashed to set the contract. If the player with five spades had only two diamonds, this strategy would have worked.

Leading a low diamond is no better. East wins and returns a spade. Declarer can then take the club finesse, but East will win the club and knock out declarer's last spade with another diamond loser remaining.

At the two tables that played this hand both South players elected to rebid 2, and both North declarers made four. So, even if the South that tried 2NT had made his contract, he still would have earned a zero.

On the Larry Cohen cruise that we took in 2012 I overheard one pair saying that they never played minor-suit contracts. This hand is one situation in which a humble minor-suit partial (with a ratty trump suit at that) is clearly superior to playing in notrump.