This hand cost us second place. I thought that I had a reasonable plan, but both of the other declarers found a better line of play.
Board #18
East dealer
North-South vulnerable
| | North
♠ A K J 5 2
♥ K 7 4
♦ 10
♣ A J 7 3
| | West
♠ 10 9 7 4
♥ A 10 8
♦ K 8 7 3
♣ 8 5
| | East
♠ 6
♥ Q 6 5
♦ Q 5 2
♣ Q 10 9 6 4 2
| | | South
♠ Q 8 3
♥ J 9 3 2
♦ A J 9 6 4
♣ K
| |
|
| | | | |
| South | West | North | East |
| P | P | 1♠ | P |
| 2♣* | P | 4♠ | P |
| P | P | | |
| | | |
I was sitting North. South's 2♣ bid was reverse Drury showing spade support and invitational values.
The lead was the ♣6; West played the 8.
My approach was straightforward. If I could ruff two clubs on the board without using my queen, I could succeed as long as spades broke 3-2, which is a 67.83% chance. The only alternative that I could see was to play West for the ♥A, which is a 50% chance. There was also a small possibility that I could win the third trick in hearts. However, one learns to recognize frozen suits – ones that yield one more trick when the opponents break them. This heart suit fit the bill. I had a strong instinct not to break the suit.
I noted that both East and West played relatively high cards on the first trick. I should have stopped and realized that one of them was giving the other a high-low signal to indicate a doubleton. So, clubs had to be splitting 6-2. No matter; as long as East was the one short in clubs, my strategy would still work, and I continued with it.
When West ruffed the third heart, I realized that I was down to a prayer that I might get the last trick in hearts. My prayer was not answered; I must have had impure thoughts.
I should have recalculated after the opening lead. If I needed a 3-2 spade fit and for West to have the long club suit, the chances of my line working dropped to 38.915%. The heart play was better. I should have led a heart at trick two. As soon as I began executing my cross-ruff strategy, the die was cast, and I was doomed.