A bizarre hand like this one appeared recently in "It's Your Call." Zach Grossack's words – "This hand must be played in clubs!" – thundered in my ear. Alas, I heeded them not.
Board #10
East dealer
Both sides vulnerable
| | North
♠ ——
♥ Q 10 7
♦ 8 6
♣ A K Q J 10 9 3 2
| | West
♠ A K Q 9 8 5 3
♥ K
♦ K 10 9 5
♣ 8
| | East
♠ 10 7 2
♥ 9 6 3 2
♦ J 3 2
♣ 6 5 4
| | | South
♠ J 6 4
♥ A J 8 5 4
♦ A Q 7 4
♣ 7
| |
|
| | | | |
| South | West | North | East |
| | | P |
| 1♥ | 4♠ | 5♥ | P |
| P | P | | |
I sat North. My hand can obviously make 7♣. All it requires is for me to drop my pencil on the floor and, in the act of retrieving it, to take a peak at West's hand to verify the presence of the singleton ♥K. Then it is a simple matter of drawing trump in three rounds, overtaking the ♥Q with dummy's ace, coming back with a spade ruff, cashing the ♥10, and then leading the ♥7 and overtaking minimally before pitching the diamond loser on the fourth heart trick.
However, I bid 5♥, not 7♣, and Ken had to deal with the devilish distribution. The lead was the ♠A, which he ruffed on the board.
Is it possible to guess at the distribution without peaking? Well, North-South has eight hearts and nine clubs. That leaves five hearts, four clubs, and six diamonds for East-West. Presumably West has at least seven spades, which leaves room for only six other cards. Still, a lot of permutations are possible that are consistent with the bidding.
So, what could possibly work? If West has protected kings in the red suits, the entire club suit must come in without a ruff. This is the line that Ken took, and it would have worked if the hearts had split 3-2. It would not work with a club lead, but on a spade lead it was feasible. Leading the singleton club definitely would have seriously restricted South's options, but it also pretty much would have forced declarer to try for the drop in hearts!
So, ceteris paribus, is there any reason to think that the hearts would split 4-1 rather than 3-2? Five decades back I could have done the calculations necessary to make this judgment rather quickly, but I don't have the mental energy this morning.
Anyway, down one was a pretty good score. Only one declarer follwed the Rabbi's Rule and made six. Evidently no one played in clubs, although it is hard to imagine that everyone sitting North fought off the temptation.