It's hand #23 for the second week in a row. This one is an interesting example of putting too much trust in Losing Trick Count.
Board #23
South dealer
Both sides vulnerable
| | North
♠ Q 9 8 5 2
♥ 6 5
♦ A K J
♣ K Q 5
| | West
♠ K 3
♥ K J 9 8
♦ Q 7 6
♣ A J 10 6
| | East
♠ 6 4
♥ A 10
♦ 10 9 8 5 4 3
♣ 9 8 3
| | | South
♠ A J 10 7
♥ Q 7 4 3 2
♦ 2
♣ 7 4 2
| |
|
| | | | |
| South | West | North | East |
| P | 1♣ | 1♠ | P |
| 2♣ | 2♥ | 4♠ | P |
| P | P | | |
I held North's cards. West's bid of 1♣ was announced as "Might be short." So, West might have clubs or might have the 4=4=3=2 hand.
I nearly overcalled 1NT. Then I remembered that we no longer played Puppet Stayman. In fear of missing a 5-3 fit I decided to bid the spades first.
South felt his hand was strong enough for a cue bid of 2♣ showing a limit raise. Counting the singleton as three, he had ten points and only eight losers. He also had an extra trump.
After West mentioned her hearts, I confidently jumped to game in spades. I counted six losers in my hand.
When East led the ♥A, I felt doomed. West must surely have all or very nearly all of the missing honors. I had a certain club loser and two certain heart losers, and the evidence was overwhelming that the trump king was off-sides. I eschewed the finesse and tried to drop it, but it did not fall.
To me the South hand does not look like a limit raise of an overcall, but it does have only eight losers: two in spades, two in hearts, one in diamonds, and three in clubs. The North hand also seems a little iffy for a six-loser hand. So, I decided to apply the formula for Adjusted Losing Trick Count presented by Terry Feetham in the July 2013 Bridge Bulletin.
To my surprise North's hand is evaluated using ALTC at exactly eight, and South's is worth exactly six. So, what happened?
Well, the one thing that neither LTC nor ALTC account for is the "mesh," which is how the cards in one hand fit together with the cards in the other. For example, if South's heart and diamond holdings were switched, LTC and ALTC give the same predictions, but one heart loser disappears from the combined holding. Of course, the bidding pretty much precludes this possibility. West showed a four-card suit that was worth mentioning at the two-level. So, the possibility of South's queen taking one of the first three tricks in the suit is greatly diminished.
However, that heart bid occurred after South's cue bid of 2♣. So, it would have been up to me to guess that one or more of South's expected tricks might be questionable. I was not up to the task.
Another source of leakage is the diamond suit. North's hand has three diamond tricks, but only one is of much value because South has no useful discards. In fact the club losers may be needed to make sure that North can play the 5 under West's ace.
It requires considerable imagination and mental effort to make adjustments like this under the gun. LTC gives a good snapshot of the playing potential of the hand, but it is not close to infallible. Feetham's article presents a chart that claims that hands with a combined fourteen losers take at least ten tricks 72 percent of the time. That's not bad, but you can't bank on it.
The easiest way to help your partner account for the actual mesh on a hand is to drop your cards face-up under the table, which, in fact, Ken did on this hand. Unfortunately, this event occurred after the auction had ended.
By the way, I don't think that overcalling 1NT would have made much difference. Ken would have bid Stayman, West might have bid 2♥, but, in any case, after I showed my spades, Ken would probably have jumped to game.